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Before the Constitution, the Articles of Confederation granted few powers to the national government. In order to get the smaller states to agree to a powerful new national government, they had to be reassured that they would not be dominated overmuch by the bigger states. The Senate was the deal that was necessary to get the small states to overcome their fear of that domination and join the union.

In the very short Article V, which lays out the process for amending the Constitution you know: two-thirds of both houses have to agree and then three-quarters of all the states have to ratify there is one provision of the Constitution that the Constitution itself says can never be changed.

But he does call attention, on a statistical level, to how it works in the most recent elections in the form of Republican Senate majorities that rely on popular minorities. See our full republication guidelines for more information. To republish, copy the HTML at right, which includes our tracking pixel, all paragraph styles and hyperlinks, the author byline and credit to MinnPost. By Eric Black Columnist. Eric Black Ink. Capitol is seen through ice-covered tree branches.

Article continues after advertisement. If you have questions, email editors minnpost. Ultimately, we see these Senate races track closely with the presidential results in the state. So based solely on that, Democrats would be winning back seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but when it's not a presidential cycle, that's not always the case either.

Indeed, was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4. That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of , Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning.

Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio — and that was a popular incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown running in a blue-wave election year If Senate Republicans seem conservative now, just wait until next year.

The midterms could usher in a wave of full-spectrum MAGA supporters who would turn the GOP conference an even deeper shade of red — and make the Senate a lot more like the fractious House.

In the five states where Republican senators are retiring, the primary election fields to succeed them are crowded with Donald Trump supporters who have made loyalty to the former president a cornerstone of their campaigns.

The three top candidates to succeed Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina have all denounced his vote to convict Trump in his last impeachment trial. In Pennsylvania, the four leading candidates to succeed Sen. The absolute fealty to Trump is only part of the change this class of candidates would herald.

There are institutional implications for the Senate as well. Rob Portman helped broker? Six of the top GOP candidates vying to replace him have rejected it. Decisions get made long before voters are paying attention that function as early indicators of what sort of national political environment we are likely to have come Election Day.

And the biggest and most important of those decisions is whether the party's strongest nominees or those perceived as the strongest get into the race. Typically those big gets have more to lose by, well, losing a race than a newcomer who is totally fine taking a flyer on a race -- and in a national environment -- they might not win.

Where should you look in this election to see what candidate recruitment is telling us? The most obvious one is in New Hampshire, where Republicans are desperately hoping that Gov. Chris Sununu R opts for the race against Sen. Maggie Hassan D.

Sununu said recently that it "really could be until the winter" before he makes a decision. If Sununu says no, not only will it lessen Republican chances of beating Hassan, but it will also send a signal that the political winds are not favorable for the GOP.

While Sununu's decision is the big one, some Republicans hold out hope for a Senate bid by Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey against Sen. Mark Kelly D -- believing Ducey has the most appeal to independent voters in the state.

Donald Trump is, um, less of a Ducey fan. For Democrats, they landed a big recruit with Rep. Val Demings' candidacy against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio R. A Senate candidacy by Wisconsin's Lt. Mandela Barnes would be something of a coup -- and a good sign for how Democratic candidates see the playing field nationally. Same goes for former Gov. Jay Nixon in Missouri. Prospects for Republican gains in the Senate are not so good.

Only nine seats are really seen as 'in play. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise.

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska upsets the right wing but is a reliable vote to organize the Senate, and the GOP will support her. So five Republican seats are at risk. Recruitment of stellar candidates with compelling biographies is crucial to success in states where the Republicans are vulnerable, which is why so much attention will focus on the Republican primaries, especially in Missouri and Ohio. Four of the 34 seats up for election in changed party control the last time they were up for election.

In , special elections took place in Georgia and Arizona. Democrats picked up both seats. The seats are up for election in In —the last time these 34 seats were up for regular election—two seats changed party hands. The following table shows the presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in , the seat is currently held by a senator of a different party than the governor.

Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors are up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors are up. Four of those seven states have Senate seats up for election in Vermont has one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election have senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The th Congress has the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota: "Prior to the th, only one congress has convened with fewer than 10 split-delegation states [since the start of the direct election era] — the 84th Congress following the Election of That cycle produced nine states with one Democratic and Republican U. Fifty-seven senators voted to convict and 43 voted to acquit.

Conviction requires a two-thirds vote of senators present. Richard Burr , N. In the Senate election cycle, Democrats flipped four seats and Republicans flipped one:. Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Click here to view the full report. Special elections to United States Senate are often required in the event of vacancies.

As of November , there had been no special elections for U. Senate scheduled for the th Congress. Fifty special elections to the United States Congress were held during the th through th Congresses.

During that time, special elections were called for 16 seats vacated by Democrats and 34 vacated by Republicans. The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between and The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.

The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from to Contact Ballotpedia at editor ballotpedia. The following charts show fundraising by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the election cycle. The congressional approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the members of the United States Congress.

It is the percentage of people polled who responded favorably toward the work of the U. Senate and House of Representatives. The following chart includes the congressional approval rating over time, in addition to the presidential approval rating and direction of country rating. To learn more about Ballotpeddia's Polling Indexes, click here.

This section will provide important dates throughout the congressional election cycle, including filing deadlines, primaries, and campaign finance reporting deadlines, when available. In a July report , Ballotpedia defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last years resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party. Senate waves from to are listed in the table below.

Ballotpedia features , encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error.

Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Share this page Follow Ballotpedia. What's on your ballot? Jump to: navigation , search. More U. House races were contested by members of both major parties than in any general election since at least , with Of the U. Representatives and U. Senators who were eligible to run for re-election in , 55 of them In the 53 open seats where an incumbent either did not seek re-election or was defeated in a primary, there were 13 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county a county that voted for President Barack Obama D in and , before switching to support President Donald Trump R in In 20 races, only one major party candidate appeared on the general election ballot, the lowest number compared to the preceding decade.

Senate special election partisan change from special elections, th Congress to th Congress Party As of special election After special election Democrats 4 7 Republicans 6 3 Total 10 10 U. House special election partisan change from special elections, th Congress to th Congress Party As of special election After special election Democrats 12 14 Republicans 28 26 Total 40 To see a list of all the Congressional special elections referenced in the table above, click [show] at the right.

Jon Kyl R-Ariz. John McCain R-Ariz. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source. In most instances, this would be the general election ballot. In the case of top-two primary states, that primary would also be taken into consideration even if two candidates from the same party eventually advance to the general election. This definition differs from elsewhere on Ballotpedia and therefore numbers for this metric on other pages might not equal what is included here.

Ballotpedia is in the process of updating competitiveness data from to and bringing this section in line with the definition used elsewhere will be part of that process. Senate following the election. Before he had his first midterm in , Coolidge was re-elected as president in Voter information What's on my ballot?

Where do I vote? How do I register to vote? How do I request a ballot? When do I vote? When are polls open? Who Represents Me? Congress special elections Governors State executives State legislatures Ballot measures State judges Municipal officials School boards.

How do I update a page? Election results. Privacy policy About Ballotpedia Disclaimers Login. Senate Elections. House Elections. Richard Shelby. Lisa Murkowski. Unknown [1]. Mark Kelly. John Boozman. Alex Padilla [2]. Michael Bennet. Richard Blumenthal. Marco Rubio. Raphael Warnock. Brian Schatz. Mike Crapo. Tammy Duckworth.

Todd Young. Chuck Grassley. Jerry Moran. Rand Paul. Schumer, a brash New Yorker, admitted to some nervousness as he began his first speech as majority leader. Schumer and McConnell are in talks about a possible power-sharing deal governing daily Senate operations, similar to one struck two decades ago. Both men favor making such an agreement, but McConnell has asked to keep the rules requiring a supermajority of 60 votes to advance most legislation.

In past years, at least some national security nominees have been confirmed on Inauguration Day.



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